ISSN 2096-7446 CN 10-1655/R
Responsible Institution:China Association for Science and Technology
Sponsor:Chinese Nursing Association

Chinese Journal of Emergency and Critical Care Nursing ›› 2023, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (12): 1068-1074.doi: 10.3761/j.issn.2096-7446.2023.12.002

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Construction and validation of a nomogram risk prediction model for subsyndromal delirium in mechanically ventilated patients

GU Tiantian,CHEN Junxi,YANG Yang,XIAO Xu,LI Jiao,ZHANG Yongmei   

  • Online:2023-12-10 Published:2023-12-21

Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk factors for the occurrence of subsyndromal delirium in mechanically ventilated patients and construct a nomogram risk prediction model to predict the occurrence of subsyndromal delirium. Methods Convenience sampling was used to select 434 mechanically ventilated patients admitted to the ICU of a tertiary hospital in Guizhou Province from July 2021 to June 2022,who were categorized into the subdelirium syndrome group (n=136) and the non-subdelirium syndrome group (n=298) using the ICU Patient Ambi- guity of Consciousness Assessment Scale. We explored the independent risk factors for the occurrence of subde- lirium syndrome through univariate and multifactorial logistic regression analyses,established a risk prediction model,developed a nomogram,and validated the model both internally and externally. Results Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age(OR=1.029),acute physiological and chronic health status score(OR=1.267), whether restrained(OR=1.029),intensive care pain score(OR=2.487),Richards-Campbell sleep scale score(OR=1.150), Richmond agitation-sedation score(OR=1.500) were independent risk factors for the development of subdelirium. The consistency index of the nomogram model for the occurrence of subdelirium in mechanically ventilated patients in the ICU was 0.956,with a sensitivity of 86.2% and a specificity of 94.1%. Conclusion The risk prediction model construc- ted in this study can effectively predict the occurrence of subdelirium syndrome in mechanically ventilated patients, which provides a reference for clinical medical personnel to scientifically predict the occurrence of subdelirium.

Key words: Mechanically Ventilated, Subsyndromal Delirium, Nomogram, Prediction Model, Critical Care Nursing