Abstract: Objective To construct and compare Logistic regression model and classification decision tree model of skin infection affected with multidrug-resistant organism（MDRO） in patients with pemphigus. Methods A total of 165 inpatients with pemphigus admitted to a tertiary class A hospital in Xi‘an from October 2015 to August 2023 were included and divided into the MDRO group and the control group according to the results of secretion culture and drug sensitive test from skin lesions. The factors were compared between the two groups and were used to established Logistic regression model and decision tree model. The discrimination（area under the curve） and accuracy（sensitivity and specificity） were committed to evaluate and compare between the two models. The two prediction models were validated by a verification group of 42 patients with pemphigus from September 2023 to March 2024. Results The skin infection rate of MDRO in pemphigus was 38.8%. Absolute neutrophil count （ANC）,hypoproteinemia and season of hospitalization were included in Logistic regression model. The model formula was P=1/[1+exp（-4.168+0.207 × ANC+2.913 × hospitalization in spring+1.256 × hospitalization in summer+1.508 × hospitalization in autumn+1.340 × hypoproteinemia）]. ANC,systemic glucocorticoid treatment and season of hospitalization were included in decision tree model,among which ANC was the most important predictor. There was no significant difference in area under the curve（AUC）（0.820 vs. 0.795） between the two models（P=0.438）. The results of accuracy showed that the sensitivity and the specificity of Logistic regression model was 0.609 and 0.871,and that of decision tree model was 0.422 and 0.970 respectively. The model validation results showed that AUC of Logistic regression model was 0.784,with a sensitivity of 0.625,and a specificity of 0.769 and that AUC of decision tree model was 0.804,with a sensitivity of 0.500,and a specificity of 0.885. Conclusion Both Logistic regression model and decision tree model have good predictive value and there is no significant difference between them. The two models should be combined in nursing application to improve the accuracy of prediction.

Key words: Pemphigus, Multidrug-Resistant Organism, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Root Cause Analysis, Nursing Care