目的 构建射频导管消融术后并发医源性股动脉假性动脉瘤 （iatrogenic femoral pseudoaneuysm，IPA）风险预测模型，并探究模型预测效果。 方法 回顾性收集浙江省某三 级甲等医院心血管内科病区2018年8月1日-2023年2月28日接受射频导管消融术的心律失常患者的临床资料，其中术后并发IPA的50例患者为病例组，同时随机选取204例未发生IPA的患者为对照组，分析危险因素并构建列线图预测模型。 采用多因素Logistic回归分析（逐步向前法）确定独立危险因素，模型的拟合优度采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验。 结果 Logistic回归分析显示，年龄（OR=1.061）、鞘管型号≥（OR=9.716）、术后国际标准化比值（OR=8.982）是IPA发生的独立危险因素，局部压迫时间（OR=0.051）、加压包扎时间（OR=0.846）与肢体制动时间（OR=0.605）是保护因素。 列线图模型的受试者特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.906（95%CI=0.848～0.964，P<0.001），灵敏度为0.860，特异度为0.759。 外部验证模型的AUC为0.868（95%CI=0.760～0.976，P<0.001）。 结论 该研究构建的射频导管消融术后并发IPA风险预测模型具有良好的预测效能， 可为临床医护人员制订分级分层管理策略，降低其发生风险提供依据。

Objective To construct a risk prediction model for iatrogenic femoral pseudoaneurysm （IPA） after transcatheter radiofrequency ablation，and to explore the effect of the model. Methods The clinical data of patients with arrhythmia who underwent transcatheter radiofrequency ablation from August 1，2018 to February 28，2023 in the cardiovascular department of a tertiary grade-A hospital in Zhejiang Province were retrospectively collected. 50 patients with postoperative IPA were selected as the case group，while 204 patients without IPA were randomly selected as the control group. Risk factors were analyzed and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. Independent risk factors were determined by multiple Logistic regression analysis（stepwise forward method）. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used for goodness of fit of the model. Results Logistic regression analysis showed that age（OR =1.061），catheter type≥（OR =9.716），and postoperative international standardized ratio （OR =8.982） were independent risk factors for IPA. Local compression time（OR=0.051），compression dressing time（OR=0.846） and limb immobilization time（OR=0.605） were protective factors. The area under ROC curve of the nomogram model was 0.906（95%CI=0.848~0.964，P<0.001），the sensitivity was 0.860，and the specificity was 0.759. The area under ROC curve of the externally validated model was 0.868（95%CI=0.760~0.976，P<0.001）. Conclusion The iatrogenic femoral pseudoaneurysm nomogram model established in this study has good predictive efficacy，which can provide a basis for clinical staff to formulate hierarchical management strategies and reduce the risk of its occurrence.